Labour’s Landslide?
Labour have won the 2024 General Election, and it was a landslide. With a swing of +210 seats, Labour won a momentous 411 seats. Contrastingly, the Conservatives hit their record low, winning just 119 seats, with a loss of 249 seats.
Whilst this was on the cards, many had to see it to believe it. Given the extent of Labour’s 2019 election defeat, there is perhaps good reason for this.
Angela Rayner insisted on “not counting my chickens until we’ve got those results coming in”, in response to the emphatic exit poll last night at 10pm. Although, this caution was not necessary thanks to the astonishing work of Sir John Curtice and his team’s mostly accurate exit poll.
Whilst it is the number of seats that matter, the % share of the electorate each party won tells an important story.
Current predictions suggest labour have won a share of just 33.8% of the total votes, despite the extent of this majority.
Whilst this is a +1.6% increase from the 2019 election, this is a 6.2% fall from Corbyn’s 40% share in the 2017 general election. Labour’s dramatic gain of total seats is disproportionate to this lacklustre vote share.
Conservative Calamity
In a contrast, the plummet of the Conservative’s vote share was staggering, achieving just 23.7% of the total vote share, attributing to a loss of 19.9%. This is very much in keeping with their record low seats total.
The reasons for the extent of Tory losses could be listed and debated on for hours. However, most importantly, it tells a story of nationwide dissatisfaction with the departing government. Noble in defeat, Rishi Sunak highlighted the importance of democracy and the public voice in his departure from Downing Street.
“The British people have delivered a sobering verdict tonight”
However, you may ask, where have all of these conservative votes gone?
The Liberal Democrat’s may be the first party to come to mind, especially given their stratospheric swing of +63 seats. However, much like Labour, their overall share of the vote increased disproportionately to their successes, coming in at just 0.6%.
One of the biggest shocks of this highly anticipated election was Reform UK’s success. As the initial results came in, Reform UK struck many of the political experts watching on, as their candidates were often coming in either second or third in their respective constituencies.
Where the conservative vote share plummeted, that of Reform UK increased by 12.3%, with over 4 million voters pencilling in Reform as their party of choice.
Reform have prided themselves in being ‘disruptors’, shaking up the political landscape. Despite gaining only 5 seats, they appear to have done just that. Farage’s rampant populism and nationalism appears to have mopped up hundreds of thousands of disillusioned voters on the right wing.
This has had an undeniable impact on this election’s results. Where the conservatives have not considered Reform UK as a credible threat throughout the campaign, Farage and his newly formed party have pounced on the golden opportunity posed at this election. Now, after several attempts, Farage sees himself with a platform he has never had as he became an MP on his 8th attempt.
Starmer and Davey With Tactical Campaigns
Labour and the Liberal Democrats won their votes in constituencies where they counted, using the UK’s voting system to their advantage.
They both ran efficient campaigns, focussing their efforts in the areas where they were likely to beat their conservative counterparts.
With this in mind, their election campaigns must be praised, irrespective of the vote shares of both parties. .
What can we take for certain?
Whether this was down to Labour’s campaign strategy, Conservative blunders, or Reform’s disruption, this remains a record-breaking Labour victory. The swing that Labour achieved to gain this majority is seismic.
Whilst many doubted this was achievable following Labour despair in 2019, Starmer’s narrative of change remained persistent throughout. He was capable of rebranding a near extinct labour party, highlighting the problems of the now departing government, and posing himself as the next best alternative in just under 5 years. The context of this unique election must not degrade this achievement.
Amongst the jubilation scenes of victory there is a serious undertone. With the changing of government, the problems facing society live on, with their solutions yet to be known. As Mr Starmer is made Prime Minister, it is now up to his new government to attempt to deliver them.
Whether Grant Shapps, one of the losing Conservative ‘big beasts’, is correct in saying “It’s not so much that Labour won this election, but rather that the Conservatives have lost it”, will be debated in the fallout of this election.
